2002 PRICES PREVAIL FOR SOME SOUTH FLORIDA HOMES

According to the Chairman of the Index Committee and S&P indices, “No cities made new lows in June 2011,” and “this month’s S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices.” Home sales, they say, are at the same levels in June as they were in 2002. Homes in the tri-county area were up .6% from May but down 5.1% from the same period in 2010. Keep in mind that “2002 prices prevail” does not refer to all sales. When homes are well located for the buyers needs and have extra features such as pools, boat docks, sizeable lots, and upgraded kitchens and baths, the seller may get a higher price than the “2002 value.” Investors looking for income earning properties, on the other hand, bid low, so those sales are at the 2002 level, and maybe lower if not in good condition.


Pending sales have declined, and until we have easier access to credit, an increase in job opportunities, and the financial markets stabilize, the housing market will continue to struggle to recover. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, “The market can easily move into a healthy expansion if mortgage underwriting standards return to normalcy… proper comparables [must be] used in appraisal valuations” and he added that the short sale process must be streamlined. He also stated that, “investors are buying real estate as a future inflation hedge.”


Nevertheless, this remains the best time ever to buy in Florida, and discerning cash buyers are buying. Those looking at higher end houses realize that if they buy now, they can live in a beautiful home, in due time it will appreciate in value while they are enjoying the lifestyle… and real estate has ALWAYS “COME BACK”.

WHAT IS SHADOW INVENTORY?

The chart above represents the balance of distressed loans

for total US markets -  excuse blurriness - had to blow it up to see it at all

bottom up: reo, foreclosures, 90-days delinquent, [unreadable]

MIT's Value of All Us Properties to Jan 2011 - down 50% since 2008

Shadow inventory represents homes that are in the foreclosure system but haven’t hit the market yet. Standard &Poor defines shadow inventory as foreclosure and REO properties in 90-day delinquency or worse and says that shadow inventories are slowing down market recovery.

The National Association of Realtors says that Standard & Poor estimates that there are 47 months of shadow inventory to work it’s way through the system.  1Q/2011 estimate was 52 months, so the number has gone down.

RealtyTrac, who tracks foreclosures, said that delays from mortgage servicers in processing foreclosures likely will cause more than 1 million foreclosures to be postponed until next year. This is a “Catch 22” because releasing many of these homes for sale will further drive down home prices.

WHAT'S UP?

Are we facing the loss of the interest deduction and would that threaten a housing market recovery?

Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, says, "the mortgage interest deduction is vital to the stability of the American housing market and economy."  He further says, "facilities home ownership by reducing the carrying costs of owning a home, and it makes a real difference to hard-working middle-class families."

With all the cuts coming up soon, would this be a positive or negative cut for the economy if it reduces the number of home buyers who counted on the interest deduction?

BOCA FESTIVAL 2011 RAISES FUNDS FOR CHARITIES

Boca Festival 2011 events begin August 8th with Martinis and Manicures from 6-9 pm benefiting the American Cancer Society at Tipsy Spa Salon, 100 Plaza Real South, Suite J, Boca Raton, FL 33432. Phone: 561-394-7751 x 5308.  

The Festival runs for the whole month of August.  See EVENTS.

Have fun while groups are fund raising this month in various areas in downtown Boca.